Abstract: Objective  To construct an individualized nomogram model for predicting the risk of thirst in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients.  Methods  A convenience sampling survey method was performed to select 200 MHD patients admitted to the Blood Purification Center of Huai'an Second People's Hospital from May 2021 to May 2022. A self-made questionnaire and the dialysis thirst inventory (DTI) were used for the investigation. According to the score of DTI scale, the 200 MHD patients were grouped into thirst group (DTI≥16 points, n=36) and non-thirst group (DTI ＜16 points, n=164). Logistic regression was used to identify the risk factors for thirst in MHD patients; R software was used to construct a nomogram model for predicting the risk of thirst in MHD patients. The ROC curve and calibration curve were used to verify efficiency of the nomogram model.  Results   Logistic regression showed that diabetes history (OR=3.174, 95% CI:1.033~9.750, P=0.044), xerostomia inventory (XI) score (OR=1.331, 95% CI : 1.201~1.475, P＜0.001), and interdialysis weight gain rate (IDWG%) (OR=4.417, 95% CI: 2.054~9.497, P＜0.001) were the independent risk factors for thirst in MHD patients. The above three risk prediction indexes were used to construct a column graph model for predicting thirst risk in MHD patients. The verification results showed that the area under the ROC curve was 0.897 (95% CI: 0.840~0.953), the slope of the calibration curve was close to 1, and the H-L goodness-of-fit test χ2=8.830 and P=0.357.  Conclusion   The nomogram model constructed based on the three indicators of diabetes history, XI score and IDWG% has better predictive performance on thirst risk in MHD patients.

Key words: Maintenance hemodialysis, Thirst, Risk factor, Nomogram prediction model