Chinese Journal of Blood Purification

Chinese Journal of Blood Purification ›› 2025, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (01): 27-30,53.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-4091.2025.01.005

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Construction of a risk prediction model for abdominal aortic calcification in maintenance hemodialysis patients

SHAO Feng, WANG Xiao-qi, YUAN Dan, LIU Cong-hui, LIAN Xiao-ying, LI Zhong-xin   

  1. Department of Nephrology, Beijing Luhe Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 101149, China
  • Received:2024-06-11 Revised:2024-09-18 Online:2025-01-12 Published:2025-01-12
  • Contact: 101149 北京，1首都医科大学附属北京潞河医院肾病中心 E-mail:lhyy6806@ccmu.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    The correlation between biomarkers and cognitive function and vascular calcification in dialysis patients and their impact on prognosis

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Abstract: Objective To study the correlation between the values of plasma atherosclerotic index (AIP) and lymphocyte/monocyte ratio (LMR) and the presence of abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients, from which a risk prediction model of AAC was then constructed.  Methods  This was a cross-sectional study. Clinical data of the MHD patients treated in our hospital from May 1, 2023 to April 30, 2024 were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were applied to determine the risk factors for ACC, from which a column chart was constructed and internally validated.  Results A total of 158 MHD patients were enrolled in this study. They were divided into AAC group (n=106) and non-AAC group (n=52). Age (F=1.325, P＜0.001), corrected serum calcium (F=0.343, P=0.016), AIP (F=8.726, P=0.003) and rate of diabetes history (F=9.287, P=0.002) were higher in AAC group than in non-AAC group; dialysis age (F=3.681, P=0.007), blood albumin (F=3.287, P=0.002), blood phosphorus (F=0.344, P=0.018), and LMR (F=1.824, P=0.022) were lower in AAC group than in non-AAC group. Multivariate logistic regression found that older age (OR=1.071, 95% CI: 1.034～1.108, P＜0.001), diabetes (OR=3.346, 95% CI: 1.428～7.843, P=0.005), high AIP (OR=1.176, 95% CI: 1.041～1.33, P=0.009) and low LMR (OR=0.777, 95% CI: 0.614～0.983, P=0.036) were the independent risk factors for AAC in MHD patients. A column chart was then constructed and the C-index of 0.834 (95% CI: 0.769～0.899) was calculated, indicating a better discriminative ability of the column chart model. A calibration curve was drawn, and the absolute error between simulated curve and actual curve was 0.029, indicating a strong consistency of the model.  Conclusions  Older age, diabetes, higher AIP and lower LMR are the independent risk factors for AAC in MHD patients. The risk prediction model based on age, diabetes, AIP and LMR has a better prediction efficiency.

Key words: Plasma atherosclerotic index, Lymphocyte/monocyte ratio, Maintenance hemodialysis, Abdominal aortic calcification, Risk prediction model

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