Abstract: Objective  To analyze the risk factors for unplanned extubation in patients with temporary dialysis catheters and construct a risk prediction model, so as to provide a reference for early warning of unplanned extubation.  Methods  A total of 250 patients with temporary dialysis catheters admitted to Huzhou First People's Hospital from January 2021 to August 2022 were retrospectively reviewed and randomly divided into a training group and a validation group at a ratio of 7:3. Risk factors were screened by univariate and multivariate logistic regression, and a prediction model was constructed and validated.  Results  The risk prediction model was Y=6.392×age+4.088×first dialysis+6.679×hypertension+5.749×indwelling time ≥ 12 days. In the training group, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.872 (95% CI: 0.813～0.931), with a sensitivity of 83.3% and a specificity of 83.5%, indicating that the model can effectively distinguish high-risk and low-risk patients for unplanned extubation in the training group. In the validation group, the AUC was 0.979 (95% CI: 0.934～1.000), with a sensitivity of 93.8% and a specificity of 92.6%, indicating that the model has excellent predictive performance in independent samples.  Conclusion  Age ≥60 years, first dialysis, hypertension, and catheter indwelling time ≥ 12 days are independent risk factors for unplanned extubation. The nomogram model constructed based on the above risk factors can effectively guide the risk prevention and control.

Key words: Hemodialysis, Temporary dialysis catheter, Unplanned extubation