Risk factors and prediction model for catheter removal in peritoneal dialysis‑associated peritonitis: A multivariate analysis

SUN Bin-bin, ZHAO Bian-jie, SUN Hao-yuan, ZHANG Lin, ZHANG Xiao-ge, WU Chen, CHEN Mo, WANG Ling

Chinese Journal of Blood Purification ›› 2026, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (09) : 734-739.

Chinese Journal of Blood Purification ›› 2026, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (09) : 734-739. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-4091.2026.09.005

Risk factors and prediction model for catheter removal in peritoneal dialysis‑associated peritonitis: A multivariate analysis

  • SUN Bin-bin, ZHAO Bian-jie, SUN Hao-yuan, ZHANG Lin, ZHANG Xiao-ge, WU Chen,CHEN Mo,WANG Ling
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Abstract

Objective To analyze the factors influencing catheter removal in patients with peritoneal dialysis‑associated peritonitis (PDAP), to construct a prediction model for catheter removal, and to evaluate the predictive value of these factors. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 516 patients who had regular follow‑up and developed PDAP at Xuzhou First People’s Hospital from December 2016 to December 2024. Patients were divided into a cure group (n=459) and a catheter‑removal group (n=57) according to treatment outcome. Multivariate logistic regression was used to build a risk prediction model for catheter removal, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was applied to assess the predictive value of the identified factors. Results The dialysis vintage in the catheter‑removal group was significantly longer than that in the cure group (t=-3.172, P=0.002), and the time to presentation was more often delayed (χ²=13.122, P<0.001). More patients in the cure group had preserved residual renal function (χ²=9.621, P=0.002). Prealbumin levels were higher in the cure group (χ²=-7.121, P<0.001), whereas the systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI) was significantly higher in the catheter-removal group (Z=-7.635, P<0.001). Gram-positive bacteria were more frequently isolated in the cure group (χ²=26.362, P<0.001), while all fungal infections occurred exclusively in the catheter‑removal group (χ²=158.261, P<0.001). Multivariate logistic regression showed that dialysis vintage (OR=1.008, 95% CI: 1.001~1.015, P=0.024), SIRI (OR=1.071, 95% CI: 1.006~1.139, P=0.031), and fibrinogen (OR=1.249, 95% CI: 1.026~1.522, P=0.027) were positively associated with catheter removal, whereas prealbumin (OR=0.989, 95% CI: 0.985~0.993, P=0.010) and presentation within 24 hours (OR=0.455, 95% CI: 0.239~0.866, P=0.016) were protective factors. ROC curve analysis yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.810 for SIRI, with a cutoff value of 4.845, sensitivity of 0.772, specificity of 0.719, and the maximum Youden index (0.491). Conclusion Catheter removal in PDAP patients is associated with nutritional status, inflammatory state, and timely presentation. Dialysis vintage, SIRI, and fibrinogen are risk factors for catheter removal. SIRI has good predictive value for catheter removal, whereas prealbumin and presentation within 24 hours are protective factors against removal.

Key words

PDAP / Catheter removal / Risk factors / Predictive model / SIRI

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SUN Bin-bin, ZHAO Bian-jie, SUN Hao-yuan, ZHANG Lin, ZHANG Xiao-ge, WU Chen, CHEN Mo, WANG Ling. Risk factors and prediction model for catheter removal in peritoneal dialysis‑associated peritonitis: A multivariate analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Blood Purification. 2026, 25(09): 734-739 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1671-4091.2026.09.005

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