Chinese Journal of Blood Purification ›› 2020, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (02): 108-112.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-4091.2020.02.010

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Development of a clinical nomogram for predicting cardiovascular events in maintenance hemodialysis patients

  

  1. 1Hemodialysis Center and 2Sterilization and Supply Department, Wenzhou Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine
    Hospital, Wenzhou 325000, China
  • Received:2019-07-11 Revised:2020-01-08 Online:2020-02-20 Published:2020-02-12

Abstract: 【Abstract】Objective To investigate the influencing factors for cardiovascular events in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients, and to construct a clinical nomogram risk predictive model. Methods A total of 229 patients with maintenance hemodialysis, who admitted into Wenzhou Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine Hospital during May 2014 to March 2017, were analyzed retrospectively. The major adverse events of the cardiovascular disease were tracked. A nomogram was developed on the results of the multivariate Cox model. Results Four risk factors were found by COX regression model , including age ≥60 years (HR=2.80; 95% CI:1.56~5.01; P<0.001), the history of cardiovascular disease (HR=2.08; 95%
CI:1.07~4.07;P=0.032) , dialysis age≥36 months (HR=2.36;95% CI:1.25~4.44; P=0.008) , and QT interval dispersion. ≥63ms (HR=2.14;95% CI:1.20~3.82; P=0.010). The initial concordance index(C-index)of nomogram was 0.719(95% CI:0.652~0.786), and C-index of nomogram was 0.722(95% CI:0.656~0.788)after 1 000 times of internal validation. Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic(χ2=8.124, P=0.632) Conclusion The nomogram based on the related factors could accurately predict cardiovascular events in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients.

Key words: Maintenance hemodialysis, Cardiovascular events, prediction model, Nomogram

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