【Abstract】Objective The aim of this study was to identify risk factors influencing survival and to determine baseline peritoneal transport status in the prediction of subsequent survival in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients. Methods This study included all adult patients who commenced peritoneal dialysis in this hospital between Jan. 1, 1996, and Dec. 31, 2007, and had a peritoneal equilibration test (PET) performed within 6 months of peritoneal dialysis commencement. Times to death and death-censored technique failure were examined by Kaplan-Meier analyses and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Results The overall survival probability after 1 , 2 , 3 and 4 years was 91.1%，77.7%，68.7% and 55.8%, respectively. Patients with diabetes, higher peritoneal transport status, advanced age, serum albumin < 30 g/ L, had lower survival probabilities. PET was performed in 180 (78%) of the 232 patients who were treated with peritoneal dialysis in this hospital during the study period. In these patients, higher transport status was found to be a significant predictor of mortality (relative risk 2.70; 95% CI 1.03-7.05; P = 0.043, as compared to those with transport status lower than average). Cox regression showed that advanced age and diabetes were the independent prognostic predictors. The relative risk (RR) of mortality in diabetic patients was 2.96 times higher than that in non-diabetic patients (95% CI 1.62-5.38; P <0.0001). As age increased by 10 years, the RR increased 0.31 (P=0.039). Conclusion The prognosis of peritoneal dialysis patients can be preliminarily predicted before the initiation of peritoneal dialysis based on their age, primary diseases, peritoneal transport status and serum albumin.
